The Texas grid should be fine in July. Here's what ERCOT says about the dog days of August
The greatest demand on the grid in August will be at night when the sun is down and the wind might not blow to generate renewable power, ERCOT warns. The Texas electric grid is expected to be fine in July, but the chances of power outages in August are likely to increase, according to a report from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The most vulnerable hour will likely be from 8 to 9 p.m. when demand is high but solar power is not available. The ERCOT sees almost no risk of an emergency alert for most hours of the day, with the chances increasing from midnight to 4p.m., and there's only a fraction of a chance until 7p. m. The report suggests reserve shortage risks during the evening hours when daily loads are at their highest levels and solar production is decreasing. Critics argue that adding nonrenewable power generation is not the only solution to protecting the state's grid. The Texas Public Utility Commission has received 125 notices of companies intending to apply for loans under the Texas Energy Fund program, and initial disbursements are expected by December.
发表 : 10 个月前 经过 John C. Moritz 在 Politics
The Texas electric grid should largely be fine in July, but the chances of power outages jump significantly in August, a new report from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas shows.
The report for July, part of a series of monthly look-aheads by the operator of the Texas electric grid at whether power generation is likely to meet demand, sees almost no risk of ERCOT having to issue what it calls an Energy Emergency Alert for most hours of the day. The most vulnerable hour, the report says, will probably be from 8 to 9 p.m., when demand is still high but solar power is not available. Still, the risk of an emergency alert is less than 0.5% for that time block.
The outlook, however, changes for August. From midnight to 4 p.m., ERCOT foresees no need for an emergency alert, and there's only a fraction of a chance until 7 p.m. But the chances of an emergency alert jump to greater than 16% for the hour that starts at 8 p.m. and drop to 5% for the next hour.
"Reserve shortage risks are the highest during the evening hours ... when daily loads are typically near their highest levels and solar production is ramping down," the report says.
Walt Baum, the CEO of the newly formed electric energy advocacy group Powering Texans, said the report reinforces the need for Texas to aggressively develop additional power generation capacity.
More:Why a new energy trade group is pushing Texas to strengthen its electricity production
“It’s important to note that ERCOT’s recent monthly outlook for August is intended to help prepare for all possible scenarios, including a worst-case scenario that would see demand peak for a limited amount of time," said Baum, whose organization's member companies are seeking to add 5,000 megawatts to the Texas grid.
The Legislature last year established a $5 billion program called the Texas Energy Fund to provide low-interest loans to power generating companies that promise to build facilities that can produce 100 megawatts or more. The loans could be used pay for up to 60% of a project's costs.
The Texas Public Utility Commission, which regulates the state's competitive electric market, said that as of June 1 it has received 125 notices of companies intending to apply for loans under the program. The companies that submitted those notices have until July 27 to make formal applications for the money.
The initial loan disbursements are expected to be completed by December.
Doug Lewin, who publishes the conservation-minded Texas Energy and Power Newsletter, said in a recent post that adding nonrenewable power generation is not the only path to protecting the state's grid.
"By including the integration of distributed energy resources, such as solar panels and battery storage systems, people can better withstand increasingly extreme weather while everyone benefits from increased capacity and reduced strain during peak demand periods," Lewin wrote. "Further, adding insulation, high efficiency heat pumps, and smart thermostats also improve customer resilience and grid reliability. These technologies not only reduce energy consumption and costs for consumers but also contribute to a more stable, reliable, and flexible grid."
The ERCOT report warns that the renewable generation front might be problematic during the peak of the summer. For example, Texas has the capacity to generate 64,000 megawatts from its wind turbines, the report said, but when the state needs the most power it can get, just under 14,000 megawatts from wind can be expected.
"The possibility of low wind production remains a significant risk for maintaining adequate reserves for the August peak demand day," the report saays.